UK Lotto odds explained: the jackpot, the Bonus Ball and match 2

How UK Lotto works

UK Lotto is drawn twice a week, on Wednesday and Saturday. Each line is simply six numbers chosen from 1 to 59. In the draw, six main numbers are taken from the full set of 59, and then a seventh ball, the Bonus Ball, is drawn from the 53 numbers that remain.

There is no separate drum and no extra number for you to choose. Your six numbers are compared with the six main numbers drawn, and the Bonus Ball only comes into play in one specific situation: when you have matched exactly five of the main numbers. In that case, if your sixth number is the Bonus Ball, you move up into a higher prize level.

How the jackpot odds are calculated

To find the jackpot odds, count how many different six-number lines are possible. The order of the numbers does not matter, so this is a combinations calculation. Choosing 6 numbers from 59 gives 45,057,474 possible lines. Only one of them will match all six main numbers drawn, so the jackpot odds for a single line are 1 in 45,057,474.

That number is easier to grasp with a comparison. If you wrote every possible UK Lotto line on its own slip of paper and laid them end to end, at around ten centimetres each, the line of slips would stretch for roughly 4,500 kilometres. Your job would be to pick out the one winning slip.

Odds for every UK Lotto prize level

For one line, the odds are:

• Match 6 (jackpot): 1 in 45,057,474
• Match 5 + Bonus Ball: 1 in 7,509,579
• Match 5: 1 in 144,415
• Match 4: 1 in 2,180
• Match 3: 1 in 96.17
• Match 2: 1 in 10.26
• Any prize: 1 in 9.23

The gap between the top two levels is worth explaining, because it shows exactly what the Bonus Ball does. There are only 6 lines that match five main numbers and also contain the Bonus Ball: take the six winning numbers, leave one out, and replace it with the Bonus Ball. That gives six possibilities, which is why 5 plus Bonus is exactly six times easier than the jackpot, and 45,057,474 divided by 6 is 7,509,579.

A plain match 5 is much more common, because the sixth number can be any of the 52 other non-winning numbers rather than one particular ball. That gives 312 lines in total, and so odds of 1 in 144,415.

Why matching 2 is so common

The most striking figure in the table is match 2, at about 1 in 10.26. Many people are surprised that roughly one line in ten matches two of the six numbers. The reason is that there are lots of ways for it to happen. Any two of your six numbers can be the matching pair, which gives 15 different pairs, and each pair can be combined with a huge number of possible non-matching numbers.

This lowest level does most of the work in the overall figure. Without it, the chance of winning any prize would be far smaller, because the next level up, match 3, is about 1 in 96. Including match 2 brings the overall odds down to about 1 in 9.23. It is a good illustration that the chance of winning something depends heavily on where a game sets its lowest prize level, not just on the size of its number range.

UK Lotto and Thunderball side by side

Thunderball, another UK game, uses five numbers from 1 to 39 plus a Thunderball from 1 to 14. Its top prize odds are 1 in 8,060,598, more than five times better than the UK Lotto jackpot. UK Lotto's larger range of 59 numbers and its requirement to match six of them are what push the jackpot odds so high. On the other hand, UK Lotto's very common match 2 level gives it a slightly better chance of winning any prize than Thunderball, which sits at around 1 in 12.38.

Does any strategy help?

No. Every draw is independent, and the balls have no memory of previous draws. Numbers that have not appeared for a while are not overdue, and recently drawn numbers are not less likely to appear again. Expecting the results to even out is known as the gambler's fallacy.

Numbers you choose yourself, a random quick pick and a line from our random number generator all have the same 1 in 45,057,474 jackpot chance. Random selection does help you avoid very popular choices, such as birthdays or straight lines on the play slip. That has no effect on your chance of winning, but it can reduce the chance that a prize has to be shared with other players who picked the same numbers.

Play responsibly

There is a minimum legal age to play, and age rules can differ between countries, so check the current requirements before you play. Set yourself a budget in advance and do not go over it. The lottery is a form of entertainment, never a source of income. Rules can change, so always check official lottery sources for the latest information.

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