Quick pick vs choosing your own numbers: which is better?

The short answer

If you are wondering whether quick picks or your own numbers give you a better chance, the answer is simple: neither. Every valid combination has exactly the same probability of being drawn, no matter how it was chosen. In Powerball, any single combination has a 1 in 292,201,338 chance of matching the jackpot draw. In Mega Millions, it is 1 in 290,472,336, and in UK Lotto it is 1 in 45,057,474.

There is, however, a real difference between the two approaches. It just has nothing to do with how often you win, and everything to do with who else might win alongside you.

Why the odds are identical

A lottery draw is designed to be random. The machine or random system has no idea which numbers were chosen by people and which were chosen by a terminal or a generator. The balls do not prefer birthdays, lucky sevens or neat patterns.

So a ticket with numbers you carefully selected and a ticket with numbers picked at random are in exactly the same position. Each is one combination out of all possible combinations for that game. Choosing numbers yourself is not a disadvantage, and letting a computer choose is not a shortcut.

How people actually pick numbers

Where things get interesting is in human behaviour. When people pick their own numbers, they tend to fall into the same habits. Some of the most common are:

• Birthdays and anniversaries, which limit choices to 1 to 31, and to 1 to 12 for months
• Lucky numbers, especially 7, and numbers linked to family or sport
• Visual patterns on the play slip, such as diagonal lines, columns or shapes
• Sequences such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or regular steps such as 5, 10, 15, 20, 25
• Previous winning numbers, either from the last draw or from a well-known result

None of these choices are less likely to be drawn. But because so many people share these habits, the combinations they produce are played by many more people than an average combination.

The birthday effect in numbers

Take the five white balls in Powerball, drawn from 1 to 69. There are 11,238,513 possible sets of five white balls. Only 169,911 of them use numbers from 1 to 31 alone, which is about 1.5% of all sets.

That means a player who only ever uses dates is choosing from a small corner of the game, a corner that is shared with a lot of other date-based players. Meanwhile, numbers from 32 to 69 are picked less often by people, simply because they cannot be dates. When the draw happens to include several high numbers, fewer people tend to have them.

Why this matters: sharing a prize

In many lottery games, the jackpot and some other prize tiers are split equally between all winning tickets. If a popular combination is drawn, there may be many winners who all share the same prize pool. If a less popular combination is drawn, the winners may be few.

This is where random numbers have a genuine, if modest, benefit. A random pick spreads your choice evenly across the whole range, so you are less likely to land on the same combination as a large group of other players. It does not raise your chance of winning at all. It only reduces the chance that, if you do win a shared prize, you have to divide it with lots of other people.

It is worth keeping this in proportion. Winning a top prize is extremely unlikely whatever method you use, and quick picks can still match other quick picks by chance. Random selection simply avoids the most crowded choices.

When choosing your own numbers makes sense

There is nothing wrong with playing your own numbers. For many people, part of the fun is a set of numbers with personal meaning, or the ritual of playing the same line every week. If that adds to your enjoyment, it is a perfectly good reason.

A few things are worth remembering if you choose your own:

• Your numbers are not more likely to win because you have played them for a long time; past draws do not make any combination "due".
• Your numbers are not less likely to win because they have already been drawn before.
• If you would like to avoid the most common choices, try using some numbers above 31 and avoid obvious patterns.

Using a random number generator

If you prefer random numbers, a quick pick at a retailer is one option. Another is our random number generator, which creates numbers in the right format for Powerball, Mega Millions, Lotto America, Florida Lotto, New York Lotto, UK Lotto and Thunderball. Each number group is generated separately, just like in the real draw.

For reference, in Powerball the odds of winning any prize are about 1 in 24.87, while the jackpot is 1 in 292,201,338. Whichever method you choose, those figures stay exactly the same.

Play responsibly

The legal age for playing the lottery depends on where you live and differs between US states and between countries, so check the rule that applies to you before you play. If you decide to play, set a budget in advance and stick to it, no matter what happened in the last draw.

Lotteries are a form of entertainment, not a source of income or an investment. Every draw is random, and no generator, system or number list can change that. For current game rules, draw schedules and official results, always rely on the official lottery operator in your state or country.