New York Lotto odds explained, tier by tier

How New York Lotto works

New York Lotto is a state game drawn on Wednesday and Saturday. You choose six numbers from 1 to 59. In each draw, six winning numbers are drawn from the 59, and then a Bonus number is drawn from the numbers that are left.

You do not pick a separate Bonus number. Instead, the Bonus number only matters if you have matched five of the six winning numbers. If your remaining number happens to be the Bonus number, your play moves into the second prize tier. The prize tiers are match 6, match 5 plus Bonus, match 5, match 4 and match 3. There is no prize for matching two numbers.

Counting the jackpot odds

The jackpot calculation asks one question: how many different sets of six numbers can be chosen from 59 when order does not matter? The answer is 45,057,474. Exactly one of those sets matches the six winning numbers, so the jackpot odds are 1 in 45,057,474.

To put that into everyday terms, it is a bit like being told that one specific minute, somewhere in the next 85 years, is the lucky one, and having to name it in advance.

Odds for every New York Lotto tier

For a single play, the odds are:

• Match 6 (jackpot): 1 in 45,057,474
• Match 5 + Bonus: 1 in 7,509,579
• Match 5: 1 in 144,415
• Match 4: 1 in 2,180
• Match 3: 1 in 96.17
• Any prize: 1 in 92.05

Where each tier comes from

Every figure in that list comes from the same idea: count how many of the 45,057,474 possible plays land in a tier, then divide. Walking through it once makes the whole table much less mysterious.

For match 5 plus Bonus, you need five of the six winning numbers and the Bonus number as your sixth. There are 6 ways to choose which five winning numbers you hold, and only one Bonus number, so 6 plays qualify. Dividing 45,057,474 by 6 gives 7,509,579.

For a plain match 5, you still hold five winning numbers in one of 6 ways, but your sixth number can be any of the 52 numbers that were neither winning numbers nor the Bonus. That is 6 times 52, or 312 plays, which gives odds of 1 in 144,415.

For match 4, there are 15 ways to choose which four winning numbers you hold, and 1,378 ways to fill the other two spots from the 53 non-winning numbers. That makes 20,670 plays, or about 1 in 2,180.

For match 3, there are 20 ways to choose the three winning numbers and 23,426 ways to choose three non-winning numbers. That gives 468,520 plays, or roughly 1 in 96.17.

Why any prize is only about 1 in 92

New York Lotto uses exactly the same 6 from 59 format as UK Lotto, so the top tiers have identical odds. The big difference is at the bottom. UK Lotto pays a prize for matching two numbers, which happens about once in every ten plays, and that pushes its chance of winning any prize to about 1 in 9.23. New York Lotto stops at match 3, so its chance of winning anything is about 1 in 92.05.

In other words, the same number range can produce very different everyday experiences. Whether a game feels like it pays out often depends mostly on where its lowest prize tier is set, and very little on the jackpot odds. When you compare games, it helps to look at the whole table rather than just the headline figure.

No method changes your chances

Each New York Lotto draw is independent. The drawing equipment has no memory, so a number that has not come up for a long time is not due, and recent numbers are not less likely to repeat. The belief that results must even out over a few draws is the gambler's fallacy.

That is why hand-picked numbers, a quick pick and numbers from our random number generator all have the same odds shown above. The only practical difference random numbers make is that they avoid popular habits, such as using birthdays, which crowds many plays into 1 to 31. That cannot raise your chance of winning, but it can lower the chance of having to share a prize with others who chose the same numbers.

Play responsibly

You must meet the legal age to play, and the minimum age is set by each state, so check New York's current rules. Set a budget before you play and stay within it. Treat the lottery as entertainment rather than a way to earn money. Game rules can change, so check official lottery sources for the current rules and draw schedule.

Generate random New York Lotto numbers ›