Mega Millions odds explained, including the 2025 change

How Mega Millions works

Mega Millions is a multi-state lottery game in the United States, drawn on Tuesday and Friday. Each play combines two separate selections. You pick five white balls from 1 to 70, and you pick one gold Mega Ball from 1 to 24.

The white balls and the Mega Ball come from different drums, so the same number can appear in both parts of your play. The jackpot requires all five white balls, in any order, plus the Mega Ball. The other prize tiers reward partial matches, and the Mega Ball plays a big role in whether a small match turns into a prize.

What changed in April 2025

In April 2025 the game matrix was updated. Before the change, the Mega Ball was drawn from 1 to 25. Since then it has been drawn from 1 to 24. The white-ball pool stayed at 1 to 70.

Removing one number from the Mega Ball drum might look like a tiny tweak, but it shifts every tier that involves the gold ball. Under the old 1 to 25 range, the jackpot odds were 1 in 302,575,350. With the current 1 to 24 range they are 1 in 290,472,336. That is about four percent better at the top level. If you see older articles quoting a figure above 302 million, they are describing the previous version of the game.

Other parts of the game were changed at the same time, and details like those can be updated again in the future. For anything beyond the number ranges, the official Mega Millions sources are the place to check.

How the jackpot odds are calculated

The calculation has two steps. First, count how many different sets of five white balls are possible. Because order does not matter, this is a combinations question: choosing 5 numbers from 70 gives 12,103,014 possible sets.

Second, pair each of those sets with a Mega Ball. There are 24 possible Mega Balls, so the total number of distinct plays is 12,103,014 multiplied by 24, which comes to 290,472,336. Only one of those will match the draw exactly, so your jackpot chance per play is 1 in 290,472,336.

To get a feel for that size, imagine choosing one second at random from a span of a little over nine years. Hitting the exact second is about as likely as matching every Mega Millions ball with a single play.

Odds for every Mega Millions prize tier

Here are the current odds for one play:

• 5 white balls + Mega Ball (jackpot): 1 in 290,472,336
• 5 white balls: 1 in 12,629,232
• 4 white balls + Mega Ball: 1 in 893,761
• 4 white balls: 1 in 38,859
• 3 white balls + Mega Ball: 1 in 13,965
• 3 white balls: 1 in 607
• 2 white balls + Mega Ball: 1 in 665
• 1 white ball + Mega Ball: 1 in 85.81
• Mega Ball only: 1 in 35.17
• Any prize: 1 in 23.07

Notice how closely the tiers pair up. Matching three white balls without the Mega Ball, at 1 in 607, is almost the same difficulty as matching two white balls with it, at 1 in 665. That shows how much the gold ball is worth: getting it right is roughly equivalent to getting one extra white ball right.

The Mega Ball only tier is also worth a closer look. With 24 numbers you might expect 1 in 24, but this tier requires the Mega Ball and no white balls at all, which brings it to 1 in 35.17. About one play in 23 wins something, and the large majority of those wins come from the bottom three tiers.

Mega Millions next to Powerball

Powerball uses 5 from 1 to 69 plus 1 from 1 to 26, with jackpot odds of 1 in 292,201,338. Mega Millions, at 1 in 290,472,336, is now very slightly easier at the top, although the gap is under one percent. Before 2025 the comparison went the other way, which is another reason older comparisons can be confusing. Either way, the difference is far too small to be a reason to prefer one game over the other.

Why the way you pick numbers does not matter

Each draw is independent of every draw before it. The balls do not remember previous results, so there is no such thing as a number being overdue or a set of numbers being on a hot streak. Expecting the results to even out in the short term is the gambler's fallacy.

That means a quick pick, numbers you choose yourself and numbers from our random number generator all carry exactly the same odds. What random selection can do is help you avoid popular choices such as birthdays, anniversaries or neat patterns on the play slip. That has no effect on whether you win, but if a popular combination is drawn, any prize is more likely to be shared among several winners.

Play responsibly

The minimum age to play depends on the state where you buy a ticket, so check your local rules. Set a spending limit before you play and do not chase losses. Lottery games are entertainment, not a way to earn income or invest. Since rules and game details can change, as the 2025 update showed, always check official lottery sources for the current rules.

Generate random Mega Millions numbers ›